Life Dynamics

Devil in the Detail

Why this tactic matters
Life decisions can be made easily through gut feel and best guestimate. Quick decisions can also be made badly, with adverse consequences for your future life outcomes. Some challenges need careful analysis and an attention to the detailed facts and figures to ensure that the pros and cons of different options are thought through and that your decision represents a full response to the problem.

Falling back on immediate impressions and intuitions, getting bored or impatient with the detailed facts and figures		Zeroing in on the detail and checking the facts to ensure all bases have been covered

Intuition is a double-edged sword Know the life decisions that matter and get them right Do the hard work Spot the “we’re sort on top of it” bullshit The “5 why” test: the cause behind the cause Decide how to decide Be a realist in decision making and an optimist in implementing your plans Imagine the “worst case scenario” Don’t believe everything you read I took a speed reading course and read “War and Peace” in one hour Use the SQRRR method to read the stuff that is important Big claims require big evidence Smart thinking doesn’t take short cuts If you react you will over-react Play the devil’s advocate Keep track of what you say, agree and do Get it in writing		Results and results only matter Trivial Pursuits Know when “good is good enough” Speed read Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity Summarise Don’t aim to make the perfect decision Play the game or watch from the sidelines Don’t give advice when it’s too late Not everyone is reasonable Numbers lie Attack woolly thinking Look at the picture on the jigsaw box Listen to your conscience; don’t manipulate the data to manage your ego The problems that are problems are people problems Don’t “over think”

Betting on a Winner
In a test of the predictive abilities of professional horse race handicappers – the individuals who set the initial betting odds - the handicappers were allowed only five pieces of information per horse, taken from past performance records. Then they made their predictions using ten pieces of information, then twenty and finally forty pieces of information. The question: does more data improve decision making power? In this instance, does more information improve gambling outcomes? The research findings. Confidence levels in the ability to pick a winner increased with more information. But accuracy did not. There was no improvement in predictive ability.

More information helps only to the extent that you know how to use it. Knowing when to drill into the key data to inform decision making is powerful. But accumulating more information in the hope that a solution will present itself is a fraught strategy. Devil in the Detail guides you to the right information at the right time.

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